| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 20.2% | 1 | 15.1% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| LAB | 45.4% | 26 | 34.6% | 1 | 2 | -1 | 25 |
| LIB | 5.9% | 0 | 4.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 19.9% | 0 | 27.5% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 |
| Green | 6.0% | 0 | 7.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 2.6% | 0 | 10.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor (prediction: LAB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Gateshead Central and Whickham (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 367 | Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | Mary Glindon | 76,421 | 55.4 | 3.3 | 55.1 | 0.9 | 28.0 | 1.9 | 10.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 67 | 359 | Tynemouth | Alan Campbell | 73,469 | 65.9 | 11.5 | 47.6 | 3.1 | 22.7 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 346 | Newcastle upon Tyne North | Catherine McKinnell | 75,146 | 64.7 | 13.3 | 40.9 | 8.6 | 18.9 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 99 | 327 | Gateshead Central and Whickham | Mark Ferguson | 69,823 | 57.6 | 4.1 | 51.5 | 1.3 | 31.0 | 1.4 | 10.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 110 | 316 | Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | Chi Onwurah | 76,969 | 53.7 | 4.0 | 51.0 | 0.8 | 31.5 | 1.7 | 11.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 112 | 314 | Durham, City of | Mary Foy | 70,582 | 57.6 | 5.0 | 50.4 | 1.7 | 31.2 | 1.1 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 115 | 311 | Cramlington and Killingworth | Emma Foody | 76,228 | 59.6 | 5.2 | 50.6 | 0.7 | 31.9 | 1.1 | 10.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 128 | 298 | Blaydon and Consett | Liz Twist | 70,487 | 59.9 | 4.5 | 49.2 | 0.7 | 32.0 | 1.0 | 12.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 158 | 268 | Jarrow and Gateshead East | Kate Osborne | 70,272 | 52.3 | 3.4 | 48.5 | 0.7 | 33.8 | 1.2 | 12.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 167 | 259 | South Shields | Emma Lewell-Buck | 68,366 | 53.9 | 3.7 | 48.0 | 0.7 | 33.9 | 1.8 | 11.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 168 | 258 | Sunderland Central | Lewis Atkinson | 76,145 | 52.5 | 4.4 | 47.8 | 1.0 | 33.8 | 1.2 | 11.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 177 | 249 | Washington and Gateshead South | Sharon Hodgson | 70,972 | 52.2 | 3.8 | 47.3 | 0.6 | 34.1 | 1.1 | 13.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 179 | 247 | Hexham | Joe Morris | 76,431 | 67.8 | 22.3 | 37.6 | 4.9 | 24.5 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 192 | 234 | Stockton North | Chris McDonald | 70,242 | 53.2 | 5.3 | 47.6 | 0.6 | 35.4 | 1.2 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 195 | 231 | Middlesbrough and Thornaby East | Andy McDonald | 75,123 | 45.8 | 5.0 | 46.2 | 0.6 | 34.4 | 1.3 | 12.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 201 | 225 | Houghton and Sunderland South | Bridget Phillipson | 78,448 | 51.0 | 4.1 | 46.4 | 0.7 | 35.0 | 1.0 | 12.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 263 | 163 | Blyth and Ashington | Ian Lavery | 76,263 | 53.0 | 4.9 | 42.1 | 0.6 | 35.2 | 0.8 | 16.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 270 | 156 | Northumberland North | David Smith | 74,132 | 65.9 | 13.3 | 39.7 | 4.0 | 32.9 | 2.6 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 273 | 153 | Stockton West | Matt Vickers | 71,868 | 67.7 | 26.7 | 30.7 | 4.9 | 24.2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 293 | 133 | Darlington | Lola McEvoy | 70,763 | 59.9 | 22.1 | 31.3 | 4.5 | 26.1 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 294 | 132 | Durham North | Luke Akehurst | 73,235 | 56.8 | 5.2 | 41.6 | 1.0 | 36.7 | 0.8 | 14.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 298 | 128 | Hartlepool | Jonathan Brash | 71,437 | 49.7 | 5.4 | 43.7 | 0.6 | 39.1 | 0.8 | 10.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 313 | 113 | Easington | Grahame Morris | 69,411 | 49.5 | 4.3 | 39.4 | 0.4 | 36.3 | 0.7 | 18.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 329 | 97 | Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor | Alan Strickland | 72,224 | 55.2 | 6.0 | 41.1 | 0.8 | 39.8 | 0.7 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 341 | 85 | Bishop Auckland | Sam Rushworth | 70,745 | 57.1 | 6.8 | 39.9 | 0.7 | 39.8 | 0.6 | 12.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 352 | 74 | Redcar | Anna Turley | 70,241 | 54.4 | 16.4 | 32.7 | 3.3 | 34.8 | 3.0 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 367 | 59 | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | Luke Myer | 70,328 | 54.1 | 14.0 | 34.9 | 2.9 | 38.5 | 2.6 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.