| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 15.1% | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 36.6% | 3 | 1 | +2 | 68 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 6.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 24.3% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 9.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 8.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Manchester Withington' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Westmorland and Lonsdale', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ribble Valley (prediction: LAB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Lancashire West (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 422 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 4.5 | 52.9 | 1.7 | 7.9 | 27.6 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 11 | 415 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 2.2 | 62.8 | 0.5 | 23.3 | 1.4 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 17 | 409 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 2.6 | 62.0 | 0.6 | 24.2 | 1.4 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 18 | 408 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 4.5 | 57.7 | 1.8 | 19.9 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 24 | 402 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 6.1 | 53.8 | 2.0 | 18.4 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 25 | 401 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 4.6 | 44.7 | 0.6 | 9.5 | 33.3 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 27 | 399 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 2.4 | 59.7 | 0.6 | 25.5 | 1.4 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 28 | 398 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 3.6 | 59.2 | 0.6 | 25.6 | 1.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 33 | 393 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 6.6 | 46.8 | 3.6 | 14.9 | 19.3 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 37 | 389 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 8.1 | 46.1 | 5.9 | 15.5 | 17.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 38 | 388 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 4.0 | 58.1 | 1.4 | 27.7 | 1.2 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 41 | 385 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 3.7 | 57.1 | 0.7 | 27.3 | 1.4 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 42 | 384 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 3.2 | 57.1 | 0.6 | 27.5 | 1.2 | 10.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 50 | 376 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 13.0 | 48.9 | 3.6 | 20.4 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 54 | 372 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 4.1 | 53.4 | 1.1 | 25.6 | 4.0 | 11.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 55 | 371 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 6.1 | 51.5 | 2.7 | 24.2 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 65 | 361 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 8.6 | 46.9 | 2.6 | 21.5 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 69 | 357 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 11.5 | 44.3 | 3.2 | 19.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 77 | 349 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 8.9 | 41.2 | 4.1 | 18.9 | 16.8 | 10.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 81 | 345 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 7.2 | 42.1 | 3.9 | 20.0 | 17.2 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 82 | 344 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 8.6 | 39.8 | 4.9 | 17.8 | 20.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 89 | 337 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 4.5 | 51.9 | 0.6 | 30.5 | 1.5 | 11.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 92 | 334 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 19.5 | 41.6 | 5.8 | 20.3 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 95 | 331 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 16.7 | 41.7 | 4.8 | 20.8 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 97 | 329 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 8.9 | 48.2 | 2.0 | 27.6 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 100 | 326 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 5.5 | 52.7 | 0.9 | 32.2 | 1.1 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 105 | 321 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 3.6 | 51.4 | 0.6 | 31.6 | 1.3 | 11.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 108 | 318 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 27.1 | 35.9 | 6.8 | 16.4 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 111 | 315 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 22.9 | 40.0 | 5.8 | 20.6 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 113 | 313 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 3.5 | 51.2 | 0.8 | 32.1 | 1.3 | 11.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 134 | 292 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 4.5 | 49.6 | 0.7 | 32.6 | 1.1 | 11.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 153 | 273 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 3.9 | 48.2 | 0.6 | 33.1 | 1.5 | 12.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 154 | 272 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 9.4 | 45.6 | 2.2 | 30.5 | 3.6 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 155 | 271 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 5.0 | 48.1 | 0.6 | 33.0 | 1.4 | 11.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 160 | 266 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 15.9 | 40.2 | 5.5 | 25.6 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 164 | 262 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 5.0 | 48.0 | 0.9 | 33.5 | 1.7 | 10.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 166 | 260 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 4.0 | 47.4 | 0.6 | 33.2 | 1.8 | 12.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 170 | 256 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 5.1 | 49.4 | 0.6 | 35.5 | 0.8 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 171 | 255 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 6.1 | 48.7 | 0.8 | 34.9 | 1.0 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 172 | 254 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 6.1 | 48.6 | 1.0 | 34.9 | 1.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 174 | 252 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 2.3 | 50.3 | 0.4 | 36.7 | 0.5 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 176 | 250 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 5.8 | 48.1 | 0.7 | 34.8 | 1.7 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 178 | 248 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 21.2 | 37.2 | 4.3 | 24.0 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 180 | 246 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 3.8 | 51.3 | 0.6 | 38.1 | 1.2 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 184 | 242 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 3.9 | 47.7 | 0.6 | 34.8 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 204 | 222 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 4.7 | 46.4 | 0.8 | 35.1 | 1.7 | 11.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 206 | 220 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 4.3 | 46.4 | 0.6 | 35.2 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 214 | 212 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 21.7 | 36.0 | 5.7 | 25.5 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 219 | 207 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 4.1 | 45.3 | 0.5 | 35.0 | 1.1 | 14.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 221 | 205 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 15.2 | 40.0 | 2.7 | 29.9 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 226 | 200 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 21.8 | 34.9 | 7.4 | 25.1 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 231 | 195 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 5.1 | 45.0 | 0.7 | 35.8 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 233 | 193 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 26.0 | 30.7 | 8.0 | 21.7 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 234 | 192 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 27.1 | 30.1 | 8.9 | 21.2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 244 | 182 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 11.9 | 41.2 | 4.5 | 32.6 | 2.7 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 249 | 177 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 4.6 | 44.7 | 0.7 | 36.7 | 1.7 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 252 | 174 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 5.5 | 44.9 | 2.2 | 36.9 | 1.1 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 256 | 170 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 22.3 | 33.0 | 8.8 | 25.2 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 260 | 166 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 14.7 | 37.1 | 2.7 | 29.7 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 271 | 155 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 16.1 | 37.3 | 3.3 | 30.6 | 3.7 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 275 | 151 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 15.6 | 38.0 | 4.0 | 31.6 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 284 | 142 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 5.8 | 31.8 | 2.9 | 26.0 | 28.4 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 291 | 135 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 10.8 | 41.8 | 1.4 | 36.5 | 1.8 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 292 | 134 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 5.9 | 43.2 | 1.2 | 38.0 | 1.1 | 10.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 295 | 131 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 22.3 | 31.2 | 6.8 | 26.3 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 305 | 121 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 24.3 | 30.9 | 6.0 | 26.7 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 306 | 120 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 6.0 | 42.5 | 0.6 | 38.4 | 1.7 | 10.8 | 0.0 | MIN | LAB |
| 320 | 105 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 28.9 | 26.3 | 6.8 | 23.8 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 326 | 100 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 25.1 | 28.8 | 7.5 | 26.9 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 346 | 79 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 18.3 | 22.2 | 26.1 | 23.0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 348 | 77 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 21.0 | 17.1 | 34.7 | 18.7 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 395 | 31 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 24.8 | 24.3 | 6.4 | 31.3 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 401 | 24 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 19.5 | 11.9 | 39.1 | 20.8 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.