| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 12.7% | 5 | 10.0% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 5 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 37 | 18.0% | 0 | 25 | -25 | 12 |
| LIB | 9.7% | 6 | 10.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 6 |
| Reform | 7.0% | 0 | 17.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 3.8% | 0 | 10.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| SNP | 30.0% | 9 | 29.0% | 26 | 1 | +25 | 34 |
| Other | 1.5% | 0 | 6.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Rutherglen' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aberdeenshire North and Moray East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stirling and Strathallan (prediction: SNP), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Dunfermline and Dollar (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | SNP % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 394 | Rutherglen | Michael Shanks | 72,674 | 58.5 | 0.8 | 41.5 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 1.7 | 37.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 35 | 391 | Airdrie and Shotts | Kenneth Stevenson | 70,199 | 52.2 | 0.7 | 41.3 | 0.7 | 10.1 | 1.7 | 37.7 | 4.6 | 3.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 35 | 390 | Glasgow West | Patricia Ferguson | 69,028 | 57.8 | 0.6 | 39.1 | 1.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 41.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 37 | 388 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Frank McNally | 72,667 | 53.3 | 0.5 | 39.6 | 0.7 | 9.1 | 2.4 | 41.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 39 | 386 | Dunbartonshire West | Douglas McAllister | 69,074 | 57.3 | 0.5 | 39.2 | 0.7 | 9.2 | 2.5 | 41.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 43 | 383 | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Pamela Nash | 71,777 | 54.4 | 1.1 | 39.7 | 0.9 | 10.5 | 3.1 | 38.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 45 | 381 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Joani Reid | 76,415 | 61.1 | 1.5 | 39.6 | 1.1 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 36.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 48 | 378 | Midlothian | Kirsty McNeill | 73,916 | 59.8 | 1.6 | 39.7 | 2.3 | 11.1 | 2.6 | 36.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 60 | 365 | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Martin McCluskey | 70,124 | 57.5 | 1.5 | 37.4 | 1.5 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 37.9 | 4.6 | 3.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 63 | 362 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Johanna Baxter | 71,574 | 57.7 | 1.3 | 37.0 | 1.6 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 38.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 72 | 354 | Renfrewshire East | Blair McDougall | 73,380 | 68.4 | 7.2 | 34.8 | 1.8 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 31.3 | 4.7 | 2.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 74 | 351 | Glasgow North East | Maureen Burke | 72,610 | 47.0 | 1.0 | 33.9 | 1.3 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 38.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 83 | 342 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor | 71,103 | 58.4 | 2.0 | 34.9 | 2.1 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 36.9 | 4.6 | 0.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 86 | 340 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Graeme Downie | 72,824 | 61.2 | 2.5 | 34.4 | 4.3 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 32.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 106 | 320 | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Imogen Walker | 75,480 | 55.8 | 4.7 | 35.3 | 2.9 | 15.6 | 5.1 | 30.2 | 5.1 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 136 | 289 | Glasgow South West | Zubir Ahmed | 68,871 | 51.8 | 1.6 | 29.6 | 2.3 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 38.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 146 | 280 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 70,839 | 66.1 | 5.2 | 31.7 | 6.4 | 16.0 | 16.8 | 15.7 | 5.1 | 3.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 149 | 276 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Katrina Murray | 70,350 | 58.2 | 2.0 | 30.2 | 2.7 | 14.7 | 7.4 | 38.0 | 4.3 | 0.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 151 | 274 | Glasgow East | John Grady | 68,988 | 51.4 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 2.3 | 14.0 | 9.9 | 36.5 | 4.3 | 1.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 152 | 274 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Kirsteen Sullivan | 72,185 | 58.3 | 3.4 | 31.6 | 4.3 | 16.5 | 7.7 | 29.8 | 4.7 | 2.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 166 | 259 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Melanie Ward | 71,845 | 56.8 | 3.6 | 30.3 | 3.5 | 16.1 | 8.2 | 30.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 197 | 229 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Torcuil Crichton | 21,235 | 63.7 | 3.0 | 28.6 | 3.8 | 17.0 | 7.1 | 20.2 | 4.5 | 15.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 204 | 221 | Edinburgh South West | Scott Arthur | 73,784 | 61.9 | 6.9 | 25.5 | 5.9 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 28.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 222 | 204 | Lothian East | Douglas Alexander | 75,456 | 63.7 | 7.5 | 28.2 | 6.0 | 18.1 | 12.6 | 20.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 233 | 192 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Lillian Jones | 74,628 | 56.9 | 4.5 | 26.9 | 2.5 | 17.9 | 8.8 | 33.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 243 | 182 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Chris Murray | 76,188 | 59.8 | 3.3 | 23.2 | 4.6 | 14.6 | 15.7 | 33.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 244 | 181 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Tracy Gilbert | 78,411 | 63.1 | 4.0 | 22.9 | 8.0 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 26.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 248 | 177 | Glasgow South | Gordon McKee | 70,219 | 60.4 | 2.4 | 22.5 | 3.8 | 14.4 | 19.4 | 30.9 | 4.1 | 2.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 257 | 168 | Glasgow North | Martin Rhodes | 67,579 | 51.4 | 2.4 | 22.9 | 4.0 | 15.1 | 18.5 | 31.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 300 | 125 | Ayrshire Central | Alan Gemmell | 69,413 | 59.7 | 10.9 | 24.0 | 3.2 | 19.5 | 9.6 | 26.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 300 | 125 | Falkirk | Euan Stainbank | 73,584 | 57.9 | 5.1 | 23.5 | 3.4 | 19.1 | 10.9 | 30.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 305 | 120 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Richard Baker | 70,655 | 51.1 | 3.3 | 24.5 | 5.0 | 20.3 | 6.6 | 35.1 | 4.4 | 0.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 309 | 116 | Alloa and Grangemouth | Brian Leishman | 70,680 | 58.3 | 4.6 | 24.1 | 3.6 | 20.5 | 10.4 | 28.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 312 | 113 | Dundee Central | Chris Law | 74,221 | 52.3 | 2.5 | 19.8 | 6.7 | 16.6 | 6.3 | 38.9 | 4.0 | 5.1 | SNP | SNP |
| 322 | 103 | Livingston | Gregor Poynton | 78,043 | 57.5 | 4.7 | 21.8 | 5.1 | 19.7 | 10.5 | 32.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 324 | 101 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Irene Campbell | 72,176 | 58.6 | 10.1 | 21.0 | 3.2 | 19.1 | 10.0 | 30.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 344 | 81 | Stirling and Strathallan | Chris Kane | 76,284 | 65.3 | 15.0 | 16.2 | 5.6 | 16.8 | 11.2 | 30.1 | 4.3 | 0.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 346 | 79 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Elaine Stewart | 70,340 | 58.2 | 18.6 | 18.3 | 3.4 | 19.4 | 8.8 | 25.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 359 | 66 | Aberdeen South | Stephen Flynn | 77,328 | 59.9 | 47.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 40.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | SNP | CON |
| 366 | 59 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Pete Wishart | 77,261 | 64.8 | 38.2 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 46.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | SNP | SNP |
| 373 | 52 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Dave Doogan | 76,668 | 61.8 | 37.9 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 48.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | SNP | SNP |
| 373 | 52 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 76,438 | 60.9 | 48.6 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 36.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | CON | CON |
| 373 | 52 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Campbell Bowie | 72,994 | 67.1 | 45.2 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 39.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | CON | CON |
| 375 | 50 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Graham Leadbitter | 77,072 | 60.4 | 38.8 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 43.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | SNP | SNP |
| 381 | 44 | Gordon and Buchan | Harriet Cross | 69,605 | 63.0 | 43.9 | 0.2 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 40.8 | 3.4 | 0.6 | CON | CON |
| 388 | 37 | Fife North East | Wendy Chamberlain | 69,762 | 61.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 59.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 28.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 388 | 37 | Dunbartonshire Mid | Susan Murray | 73,596 | 71.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 52.0 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 31.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 394 | 31 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Stephen Patrick Gethins | 76,149 | 57.9 | 15.1 | 13.8 | 6.3 | 20.7 | 3.7 | 37.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 396 | 29 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Angus MacDonald | 77,927 | 61.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 44.8 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 40.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 396 | 29 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Jamie Stone | 74,627 | 61.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 54.6 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 31.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 397 | 28 | Dumfries and Galloway | John Cooper | 78,541 | 58.3 | 29.5 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 16.1 | 7.0 | 30.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | CON | SNP |
| 397 | 28 | Edinburgh West | Christine Anne Jardine | 76,490 | 68.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 52.5 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 20.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 407 | 18 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 75,925 | 55.4 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 21.2 | 7.8 | 38.0 | 4.2 | 3.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 408 | 17 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Brendan O'Hara | 71,756 | 62.5 | 16.8 | 5.3 | 16.3 | 16.1 | 5.7 | 33.6 | 3.8 | 2.4 | SNP | SNP |
| 408 | 17 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 71,900 | 61.5 | 29.9 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 18.4 | 9.3 | 23.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | CON | CON |
| 410 | 15 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,236 | 60.4 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 54.5 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 15.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 414 | 11 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | Seamus Logan | 70,058 | 54.5 | 35.3 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 37.7 | 3.3 | 0.6 | SNP | SNP |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.