| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.2% | 0 | 16.9% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 |
| LAB | 37.0% | 27 | 22.4% | 0 | 10 | -10 | 17 |
| LIB | 6.5% | 1 | 7.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Reform | 16.9% | 0 | 25.2% | 9 | 0 | +9 | 9 |
| Green | 4.7% | 0 | 7.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Plaid | 14.8% | 4 | 16.1% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| Other | 2.0% | 0 | 5.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Swansea West' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Pembrokeshire Mid and South', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Vale of Glamorgan (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Swansea West (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | Plaid % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 323 | Swansea West | Torsten Bell | 74,236 | 48.0 | 3.9 | 50.4 | 1.0 | 30.2 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 118 | 308 | Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Nick Smith | 70,153 | 42.7 | 6.9 | 44.7 | 2.1 | 26.5 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 124 | 302 | Pontypridd | Alex Davies-Jones | 75,951 | 51.8 | 3.8 | 48.9 | 0.5 | 31.5 | 2.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 143 | 283 | Rhondda and Ogmore | Chris Bryant | 74,493 | 48.1 | 2.7 | 48.4 | 0.4 | 32.3 | 2.5 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 156 | 270 | Newport West and Islwyn | Ruth Jones | 75,781 | 55.4 | 4.7 | 48.2 | 0.6 | 33.3 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 162 | 264 | Aberafan Maesteg | Stephen Kinnock | 72,580 | 49.3 | 3.4 | 47.9 | 0.5 | 33.3 | 2.1 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 181 | 245 | Gower | Tonia Antoniazzi | 76,123 | 62.0 | 9.1 | 42.8 | 2.6 | 29.8 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 185 | 241 | Cardiff South and Penarth | Stephen Doughty | 72,613 | 54.0 | 12.9 | 28.6 | 6.5 | 15.9 | 18.8 | 13.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 189 | 237 | Newport East | Jessica Morden | 76,845 | 50.1 | 4.8 | 46.8 | 0.6 | 34.4 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 205 | 221 | Cardiff North | Anna McMorrin | 71,335 | 66.5 | 17.4 | 29.8 | 8.2 | 18.6 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 208 | 218 | Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Gerald Jones | 74,460 | 47.3 | 3.4 | 45.9 | 0.6 | 34.9 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 239 | 187 | Torfaen | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 71,738 | 49.8 | 4.6 | 45.1 | 0.5 | 36.2 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 264 | 162 | Cardiff East | Jo Stevens | 72,873 | 53.7 | 11.8 | 25.5 | 12.1 | 18.5 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 269 | 157 | Cardiff West | Alex Barros-Curtis | 75,473 | 59.3 | 14.3 | 25.4 | 5.3 | 18.7 | 11.4 | 20.3 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 311 | 115 | Neath and Swansea East | Carolyn Harris | 76,291 | 52.6 | 6.5 | 37.5 | 2.8 | 34.1 | 3.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 326 | 99 | Vale of Glamorgan | Kanishka Narayan | 74,374 | 61.6 | 24.6 | 24.3 | 6.8 | 22.5 | 6.7 | 12.1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 338 | 88 | Caerphilly | Chris Evans | 72,643 | 52.6 | 13.4 | 23.8 | 4.7 | 23.4 | 7.6 | 21.0 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 339 | 87 | Bridgend | Chris Elmore | 73,152 | 56.6 | 10.5 | 33.8 | 3.5 | 33.4 | 4.2 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 357 | 69 | Bangor Aberconwy | Claire Hughes | 69,023 | 60.4 | 20.0 | 20.3 | 6.5 | 23.0 | 4.8 | 21.9 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 358 | 67 | Ynys Mon (Anglesey) | Llinos Medi | 53,141 | 61.4 | 30.7 | 13.4 | 4.7 | 16.3 | 2.4 | 30.1 | 2.4 | 0.0 | Plaid | CON |
| 362 | 64 | Monmouthshire | Catherine Fookes | 74,823 | 68.0 | 21.2 | 25.0 | 5.9 | 28.2 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 369 | 57 | Clwyd East | Becky Gittins | 76,637 | 62.4 | 23.7 | 22.5 | 7.9 | 26.2 | 5.1 | 11.7 | 3.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 373 | 52 | Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) | Ann Davies | 74,003 | 61.6 | 23.1 | 15.2 | 4.2 | 19.3 | 3.0 | 30.7 | 4.5 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 382 | 44 | Alyn and Deeside | Mark Tami | 75,790 | 57.3 | 11.9 | 30.6 | 4.5 | 35.7 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 388 | 37 | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Liz Saville Roberts | 73,042 | 55.3 | 17.7 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 17.0 | 3.1 | 42.6 | 4.3 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 393 | 33 | Wrexham | Andrew Steven Ranger | 70,269 | 57.5 | 20.2 | 21.7 | 7.2 | 28.4 | 5.1 | 13.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 401 | 24 | Ceredigion Preseli | Ben Lake | 75,690 | 61.2 | 16.7 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 18.8 | 3.4 | 36.8 | 4.2 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 408 | 18 | Llanelli | Nia Griffith | 71,536 | 57.0 | 12.6 | 19.7 | 4.6 | 29.9 | 5.5 | 21.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 408 | 17 | Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | David Chadwick | 73,114 | 63.7 | 22.7 | 13.4 | 24.0 | 23.8 | 4.1 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 409 | 17 | Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr | Steve Witherden | 74,039 | 58.4 | 16.6 | 18.0 | 10.8 | 30.3 | 5.1 | 13.7 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 411 | 15 | Clwyd North | Gill German | 75,027 | 55.5 | 28.4 | 17.2 | 6.0 | 29.7 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 416 | 10 | Pembrokeshire Mid and South | Henry Tufnell | 79,031 | 59.0 | 30.4 | 15.2 | 6.1 | 31.7 | 3.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.